Previously: Part 1
I'm back and it's time to continue removing candidates from the hypothetical field to trim it down to the bare essentials. Let's get right to it.
To remind you, Part 2 starts with this field*, grouped by meta-message:
Joe Biden (Electability and Experience)
Amy Klobuchar (Electability and Experience)
Michael Bennet (Electability and Experience)
Steve Bullock (Electability and Experience)
Elizabeth Warren (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Bernie Sanders (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Kirsten Gillibrand (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Jay Inslee (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Kamala Harris (Coalition-Builder)
Cory Booker (Coalition-Builder)
Julián Castro (Coalition Builder)
Marianne Williamson (Outsider)
Andrew Yang (Outsider)
Tom Steyer (Outsider)
The Second Elimination: Biden, Bennet, Bullock
As a result of the Uniqueness criterion, only one candidate can have the same meta-message. I think Sen. Amy Klobuchar is the best sovereign of this meta-message. Why do I think this? First of all, she's not a white man, which is a frequent misconception about what it means to be electable. However, Klobuchar has never lost an election in her life**, hails from the Midwest, and has a more moderate platform: all the ingredients to the nondiscriminatory notion of electability. Klobuchar is polling so poorly compared to how well she "should" be polling. I think she's a good person to have in the race.
So why not Former Vice President Joe Biden? I wrote an entire article about it a couple of months ago, right here. The TL;DR is that his entire campaign is predicated on this notion that white men are more electable, which is backed up by logical arguments (I don't think America will go for a woman after 2016) but not the underlying facts (A study of congressional elections showed that women win at the same rate as men).
Why not Bennet or Bullock? They're polling at 0%. Let's move on to the candidates that are running for more than airtime.
The Third Elimination: Sanders, Inslee, Gillibrand
Next, we must unify all the liberal policy wonks under one candidate. Sen. Elizabeth Warren takes up this mantle exemplarily: she is a senator from Massachusetts who has been promoting liberal policy for her entire career. Also, she would still be a palatable choice for the establishment wing of the party. However, I feel compelled to explain my elimination of the other three choices to explain why they don't fit.
Sen. Bernie Sanders is eliminated because his views have been eclipsed by Warren. Last election, his views were new and unique to him, but now they have become a mainstream part of the Democratic conversation. He is no longer needed for his legacy to continue. Warren is more acceptable for the establishment while providing the "revolution" Sanders supporters desire.
After Buttigieg, Gov. Jay Inslee is the one I'm saddest to see go. His focus on climate is changing the Democratic conversation in a positive way, towards the existential crisis that plagues us all. But we can only have one Liberal Policy Wonk, and the fact is that Inslee's lack of depth on issues that aren't climate change make it so Warren is a deeper candidate and someone who can better represent the kind of voters who would support Inslee in addition to other voters. Climate-concerned voters can support Warren.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is similar to Inslee. She has a somewhat narrow focus on women's issues, and Warren can take up the mantle for these issues while also promoting a broader conversation.
Here's who remains.
Amy Klobuchar (Electability and Experience)
Elizabeth Warren (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Kamala Harris (Coalition-Builder) Cory Booker (Coalition-Builder) Julián Castro (Coalition Builder)
Marianne Williamson (Outsider)
Andrew Yang (Outsider)
Tom Steyer (Outsider)
The Fourth Elimination: Castro
Under the label of Coalition-Builder, two candidates are exemplary fits: Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. They're both somewhat vague on policy, trying to mediate between the different factions of the party, but they're clear that they will fight for what they believe in. That doesn't, however, describe Obama-era Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Julián Castro. He's more specific on immigration, closer to a Liberal Policy Wonk with Obama creds. He's also not as energizing as Booker and Harris; he doesn't project "fighter." His whole meta-message is a bit uncertain, and that dethrones him.
The Fifth Elimination: Steyer
An outsider is new to the world of campaigning. An outsider will provide a fresh perspective. An outsider has some pretty crazy policy proposals. An outsider creates atypically good comedy on Saturday Night Live. An outsider will shake things up. Marianne Williamson is an outsider. Andrew Yang is an outsider. Tom Steyer is not an outsider.
The semifinal list contains:
Amy Klobuchar (Electability and Experience)
Elizabeth Warren (Liberal Policy Wonk)
Kamala Harris (Coalition-Builder) Cory Booker (Coalition-Builder) Marianne Williamson (Outsider)
Andrew Yang (Outsider)
The Sixth and Final Elimination: Harris (or Booker), Yang (or Williamson)
For me, Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker take up the mantle of Coalition Builder equally well, branding themselves as passionate fighters with somewhat vague policy. Apparently, Booker is a vegan, so he gets to stay, but Harris works equally well.
Similarly, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang are both new to politics, both provide a fresh perspective, both have weird policies, both create good comedy, and both promise to shake things up. I'm arbitrarily picking Williamson to remain in the race, but both work.
So the final lineup is:
Amy Klobuchar
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker (or Kamala Harris)
Marianne Williamson (or Andrew Yang)
I can find someone to get behind here for sure.*** How about you?
–beautifulthorns
*Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper dropped out between the release of Part 1 and Part 2. He would have been eliminated in the second elimination. (Previous candidate Eric Swalwell would have been out in the first.)
**That alone might be a suspect way to measure it given that it can be a factor of which elections you run in. For instance, Donald Trump has also never lost a presidential election in his life. But that doesn't mean he's "electable." However, Amy Klobuchar has participated in seven primary and general elections, depending on how you measure it, so I'd say that that counts.
***Cory Booker.