Prior to the South Carolina primary, it was easy to draw parallels between the 2020 Democratic field and the 2016 Republican one:
Bernie Sanders was Donald Trump: a divisive, extremist figure who received plurality wins in the first few states, cementing his status as a frontrunner but spawning doubt he could go all the way.
Elizabeth Warren was Ted Cruz: also an antiestablishment candidate as well, but less clearly; unconventional ideas in conventional packaging.
Joe Biden was Jeb Bush: an early frontrunner who fell flat and performed surprisingly poorly in the early states.
(We don't have to do all of them, but if you want to read 'em anyway, they're in this footnote.*)
Last election season, Trump prevailed while the remainder of the field remained muddled. They haven't found their opposition candidate. But this year, it seems like Democrats have learned their lessons from 2016. After Joe Biden won a near majority of votes in the South Carolina primary, trouncing Sanders by almost 30 percentage points, second-tier candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have called it quits and put their support behind Biden. They join Rep. James Clyburn, vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine, former party leaders Harry Reid and Debbie Wasserman Schulz–and that's just this week. The party is–actually!–consolidating behind a Sanders alternative.
(Obviously, it's not good practice to put too much stock in the current news narrative. I'd be inclined to say Sanders is likelier than Biden, and also I'm hedging just in case.)
And you know what? He's not so bad.
Introduction
Happy Super Tuesday, and welcome to Chromatic Conflux! For most of the primary election, I've been strongly anti-Biden. When you compare his moderatism and electability with the solid liberal messages of candidates like Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, Biden doesn't look all that good. And I would still take any of those three candidates over the vice president. But that aside, Joe Biden is back, folks. He's become more vibrant, more authentic, more prepared. And, let's be honest, he is the only one with the tools to beat Bernie Sanders in the primary and obtain a delegate majority.
Joe Biden is an authentic persona who has the ability to connect with people.
My Biden Story
Last summer, I was in a bookstore and happened upon Joe Biden's book Promise Me, Dad. I picked it up, and it was a great read, if a bit saddening.** It underscored a key character trait of Biden's: his empathy. With all this electability business, his ever-prevalent gaffes, and more, it's easy to ignore this. However, Joe Biden is an authentic persona who has the ability to connect with people. After his South Carolina victory speech, he brought it back home to this, to where he was coming from. Even this speech had a gaffe–he endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Jamie Harrison for President, not Senator, before catching himself–but that's not what it's all about.
Settle for Biden
I wrote a post awhile ago titled "Don't Settle for Biden," about how you shouldn't pass up more appealing candidates in favor of the vice president. But everyone besides Sanders and Biden have been dwindling over the past few weeks. The FiveThirtyEight forecast, in fact, has only Sanders and Biden above a 1% chance to win a majority, and they're the only candidates to be viable in every Super Tuesday contest.*** After all, the point of a vote for president is to pick the president. It would be a disaster to select Sanders, and Biden makes decent opposition.
Only Sanders and Biden are above a 1% chance to win a majority.
The Problem with Biden
A week ago, I was deeply anxious about the state of the race, disillusioned with a top-tier of three old, white men, none of whom I particularly agreed with. I had some sense that Biden was my favorite, but it was weak. He hadn't demonstrated to me that he had the strength to be president. He was old and, let's be honest, you were never sure if he could finish stringing his sentences together.
But he vindicated himself on the debate stage. He proved that he could be passionate, that he could stand up for himself, and that he understood what was going on. He also showed his authenticity and experience once again.**** Joe Biden was back in the game.
The Race Going Forward
Oddly, according to the aforementioned FiveThirtyEight forecast, Buttigieg's and Klobuchar's dropping out has hurt Sanders and helped the scenario where no candidate receives a majority. This is because it might raise Warren and Bloomberg above the 15% delegate threshold and give them more delegates, taking those away from Sanders and Biden. There's truth to that. However, we can't ignore the context in which these campaign suspensions and endorsements come: the party is coalescing behind Vice President Biden.
We can't ignore the context in which these campaign suspensions and endorsements come: the party is coalescing behind Vice President Biden.
If you look at endorsements throughout history, the party has picked their candidate well before actual voting (think Hillary Clinton in 2016, for instance; and both Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000). But sometimes, endorsers have been quiet until the early states highlight a satisfactory candidate who is performing well (like John McCain in 2008 and John Kerry in 2004). That seems to be what's happening.
Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg
As I'm writing this, Warren and Bloomberg are still in the race. It seems likely that both will drop out after the voting today,**** and neither is well-positioned to obtain a majority.
Biden is the viable Democratic alternative to a Bernie Sanders and a candidate who will make progress towards a more progressive nation. So to every Super Tuesday voter reading this, please select Biden.
–beautifulthorns
Next: Addenda
*In case you're wondering:
Pete Buttigieg was Marco Rubio: a young, electable-seeming young man without much primary success.
Amy Klobuchar was John Kasich: poorly positioned to win any state outside of their home state, and stayed in the race too long.
Kamala Harris was Scott Walker: apparently a top-tier candidate towards the beginning, but fell weirdly flat when things started happening.
Andrew Yang was Carly Fiorina: a businessperson with an unconventional take on the world; they probably just ran to get their name out there.
Marianne Williamson was Ben Carson: the most ridiculous candidate of them all, sounding coherent on occasion in but mostly completely absurd; you can imagine them floating off into space.
**Quick summary: as Attorney General of Delaware, Beau Biden was very popular, and did his job well. He was therefore reelected to a second term with over 70% of the vote. Instead of running for a third term, though, Biden became a candidate for the position of Governor. However, before he had a chance to really campaign, he was diagnosed with terminal cancer and passed away.
While all this was going on, speculation was mounting that the elder Biden would run for President. He was the sitting Vice President, and would certainly be a formidable contender, though he was saddened by his son's death. Beau Biden didn't want this to fetter a possible Biden for President campaign, however, and he asked his father to promise him that, no matter what, he would be alright, and wouldn't let his illness affect his decision.
Despite that, Joe Biden wasn't ready in 2016. Besides, it didn't make electoral sense and his path forward was fraught. But in 2020, he was ready to fight.
***Okay, I wouldn't count on Biden performing in Vermont. (Or Utah...) He might get a delegate or two, though, which is really what I'm measuring.
****Which might explain Parks and Recreation protagonist Leslie Knope's weird Joe Biden heartthrob?
*****I'm not sure how long Tulsi Gabbard wants to waste everyone's time, but she might throw in the towel as well. (She would endorse Sanders, not Biden.)