Last July, I reviewed the Senate elections on the ballot in 2020. I've been planning on doing a sequel for awhile, since things have changed a bit–candidates have declared, dynamics have shifted. Two things in the news have convinced me that the moment is now: FiveThirtyEight has moved Biden above 99% to be the Democratic nominee, and Steve Bullock has announced his candidacy for Senate in Montana. For context, Bullock is a Democrat who's been reelected twice as Montana governor. He's quite literally the only person with a chance to beat Republican Steve Daines.
He's quite literally the only person with a chance to beat Republican Steve Daines.
As a reminder, Democrats need to gain 3-4 seats (depending on the vice president's party) to gain control of the Senate. Before we get to the fun ones, we'l eat our vegetables and give the boring races a passing mention. But quickly, let me go over what each rating means:
Safely: 100% chance. If this party loses, I'm accountable. Quote me. Embarrass me.
Likely: 75-99% chance. This party is a significant favorite, but could still lose, maybe. It would be a surprise but not earth-shattering.
Leans: 55-74% chance. Both sides could conceivably win, but one party has a bit of an edge.
Tossup: 50-54% chance. I have no idea which party will win. These are the bread-and-butter elections that will determine the course of the Senate.
Safely Democratic
The following elections will almost certainly be won by the incumbent party–though one requires commentary.
Delaware: Sen. Chris Coons (D)
Illinois: Sen. Dick Durbin (D)
Oregon: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D)
New Jersey: Sen. Cory Booker (D)
Rhode Island: Sen. Jack Reed (D)
Virginia: Sen. Mark Warner (D)
Polls show a legitimately competitive race (perhaps with a small Kennedy edge) so it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.
Massachusetts: Sen. Ed Markey/Joe Kennedy III (D)
Joe Kennedy III, representative and relative of John F. Kennedy, is challenging incumbent Sen. Ed Markey for the Democratic nomination in Massachusetts. After hearing about extremely liberal challengers like Ayanna Pressley and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, you might assume Kennedy thinks Markey isn't liberal enough. But, in fact, Kennedy is slightly more conservative than Sen. Markey–which may be why the senator received endorsements from the aforementioned AOC along with Elizabeth Warren. In any case, polls show a legitimately competitive race (perhaps with a small Kennedy edge), so it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out. Of course, whoever wins the primary will win the general as well, so it has no effect on the party balance in the Senate.
Safely Republican
And so will these.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)
Arkansas: Sen. Tom Cotton (R)
Idaho: Sen. Jim Risch (R)
Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)
Mississippi: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Nebraska: Sen. Ben Sasse (R)
Oklahoma: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R)
South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R)
South Dakota: Sen. Mike Rounds (R)
West Virginia: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Two of these elections I want to give particular attention:
Tennessee: Bill Hagerty (R)
Last time around I said "the Democrat has the ability to triumph." That seems unlikely. Two years ago, we had an open seat in Tennessee. Former Gov. Phil Bredesen was extraordinarily popular in Tennessee for a Democrat. He lost to then-Rep. Marsha Blackburn, now a senator. It's hard to see a path to victory for anyone except Ambassador Bill Hagerty.
Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis (R)
Sen. Mike Enzi announced his retirement, creating a competitive game. The early frontrunner was Liz Cheney, Wyoming's only representative and the daughter of Former Vice President Dick Cheney. However, she decided not to run. Matt Mead, the state's former governor, and Cheyenne Mayor Marian Orr both declined to run as well. That leaves Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis as the heir apparent. It wouldn't totally surprise me if another Republican was nominated, but it's unclear who that would be.
Likely Democratic
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R)
Not much has changed since last year–Sen. Gary Peters will probably win reelection, but...you never know? John James ran against Michigan's other senator two years ago and lost by 7 percentage points. The few polls that exist have Sen. Gary Peters up by about 5 points. All of this makes me think that a James win could happen, but would probably need a catalyst; for instance, Donald Trump winning Michigan.
Minnesota: Sen. Tina Smith (D) vs. Jason Lewis (R)
Strictly speaking, the Republican primary hasn't happened yet–but former Rep. Jason Lewis is the only one to have held political office before. Perhaps more importantly, though, he is endorsed by Donald Trump. But things don't look good for Lewis in the general. Sen. Tina Smith won her special election last year by about 10 percentage points, and she now has the advantage of being a sitting senator. Like in Michigan, a Republican win would probably come from Trump carrying the state.
Perhaps more importantly, he is endorsed by Donald Trump.
New Hampshire: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Don Bolduc/Bill O'Brien (R)
With former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowksi and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu out of the running, Republicans are divided between Don Bolduc, a former brigadier general, and Bill O'Brien, once the New Hampshire Speaker of the House. Either would be the extreme underdog against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who leads healthily in head-to-head polls, and Bolduc or O'Brien would need a miracle to overtake Shaheen.
New Mexico: Ben Ray Luján (D) vs. Elisa Martinez/Mark Ronchetti/Mick Rich (R)
Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Luján, with loads of endorsements and no Democratic opposition, is essentially sure to be nominated, but the Republican primary is much more up in the air. A party convention straw poll had pro-life advocate Elisa Martinez topping the pack, followed by former TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti. Businessman Mick Rich, the Republican nominee for Senate in 2018, is also in the running. Any of them could win the primary, but Luján would likely defeat them in November, as New Mexico is relatively blue on average.
Georgia is still a fairly comfortable Republican hold, at least in 2020.
Likely Republican
Georgia (normal): Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff/Teresa Tomlinson (D)
Jon Ossoff rose to prominence in a special election in 2017, where he lost by a narrow 3-point margin in ruby-red Georgia. He seems to be the mild favorite over Teresa Tomlinson, the former mayor of Columbus, as both have many endorsements. It seems unlikely, however, that Sen. David Perdue will be defeated. He's not especially unpopular or unique, and it will take a miracle–perhaps a Biden landslide–to defeat him. Though it's trending toward the Democrats, Georgia is still a fairly comfortable Republican hold, at least in 2020.
Georgia (special): Sen. Kelly Loeffler/Doug Collins (R) vs. Raphael Warnock (D)
When Sen. Johnny Isakson resigned for health reasons, the governor appointed businesswoman Kelly Loeffler, who–fun fact–is the co-owner of a WNBA team, who will now be put to the test in a special election. Since Sen. Loeffler was appointed instead of elected, she has several Republican challengers, including Rep. Doug Collins. That said, Loeffler has many endorsements, including Mitch McConnell, Ivanka Trump, Nikki Haley, and Newt Gingrich, so she is the strong favorite. On the Democratic side, pastor Raphael Warnock seems to be the presumptive nominee, with a wide range of endorsements and weak competition. As Loeffler was, again, appointed, this race seems better for the Democrats than the Perdue seat, it won't be much better.
Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield/Kimberly Graham/Eddie Mauro (D)
The Democratic Party has a crowded field aiming to replace Sen. Joni Ernst. The few polls conducted show a chaotic race with many undecided voters, though Theresa Greenfield leads Kimberly Graham, Eddie Mauro, and some others in endorsements. No candidate has much political experience, and Iowa has become redder and redder as of late, so Ernst is almost certain to be reelected.
Kansas: Kris Kobach/Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Collier (D)
It's an open seat, with Rep. Roger Marshall pitted against Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach for the Republican nomination. Kobach is notable for managing the feat of losing to Laura Kelly for governor two years ago. If Rep. Marshall wins, he's a lock to triumph over Democrat Barbara Collier. On the other hand, a Kobach victory would make the election truly close.*
A McGrath win would shock me.
Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
In 2018, Former Marine Amy McGrath lost by just 3 percentage points in her campaign for the House of Representatives. This time, she's trying to do even better, ousting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in all of Kentucky. Kentucky overall is even redder than it's 6th Congressional district, so a McGrath victory appears unlikely, despite McConnell's unpopularity. McConnell is one of the worst Republican senators, given his antidemocratic stonewalling of Democratic legislation (not even letting many proceed to a vote). That said, a McGrath win would shock me.
Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. MJ Hegar/Royce West (D)
In 2018, Rep. Beto O'Rourke challenged Sen. Ted Cruz for his Senate seat. Cruz was fairly unpopular. O'Rourke performed amazingly. Cruz still won. O'Rourke has ruled himself out, as have Julián and Joaquin Castro. That left a jumbled, disorganized Democratic field. In Texas, the top two primary candidates advance to a runoff. Those two candidates are Former Air Force Member MJ Hegar, winning 22% of the vote, and State Sen. Royce West, with 15%. Either will be a significant underdog against Sen. John Cornyn, who is more popular than Ted Cruz.
Leans Democratic
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Sen. Cory Gardner
Like Bullock above, Former Gov. John Hickenlooper ran for president this season, but dropped out early. During his presidential campaign, he denied he would run for Senate more fervently than most politicians, saying that "I'm not cut out to be a Senator." But perhaps he will end up as one. Hickenlooper, of course, still has to defeat the other Democrats who started their Senate runs while he was off running for president, but polls show a lead of over 40%, so that shouldn't be an issue. In the general election. Incumbent Republican Cory Gardner will struggle to maintain his seat as Colorado turns bluer and bluer, and with party polarization at new levels, Biden winning Colorado would likely elect Hickenlooper as well. Of course, Gardner shouldn't be counted out–he is the current senator–but this is a major opportunity for the Democratic party.
"I'm not cut out to be a Senator." –John Hickenlooper, Senate candidate
Leans Republican
Alabama: Jeff Sessions/Tommy Tuberville (R) vs. Sen. Doug Jones (D)
Jeff Sessions originally held this Senate seat, but when Trump appointed him Attorney General, he resigned, prompting a special election. Doug Jones managed an upset victory in the special election, beating Roy Moore, an alleged child molester, in Alabama, just about as Republican as elections get. Moore tried again in 2020, but was defeated in the primaries. Speaking of, we're now down to a runoff between Sessions, hoping he can reclaim what was originally his, and Tommy Tuberville, a former football coach endorsed by Trump. Tuberville got 33% to Sessions' 32% in the primary, but with so much of the vote still remaining, it's anyone's game. In the general, Sen. Jones has the advantage of incumbency, but a Democrat winning in Alabama is always a major challenge, so while he could win for sure, it will be difficult.
Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R) vs. Steve Bullock (D)
Steve Bullock managed the incredible feat of election and reelection to the governorship in Montana. With this red-state winning record, he joined every major politician in America and ran for president in 2020. He ultimately dropped out, and was persuaded to run for Montana Senate. That's fortunate, because he may be the only Democrat who can beat incumbent Steve Daines. That said, it's Montana. Daines won his last election by 17 percentage points. If anyone can beat Daines, it's Bullock**, but it won't be easy. I would put Daines' reelection odds at around 60% with Bullock at 40%, making him a small favorite.
Tossup
Arizona: Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
Back in 2018, Jeff Flake retired, and Kyrsten Sinema became the first Democrat to take the Senate in Arizona since 1988, beating out Martha McSally. However, when then-Sen. John McCain sadly passed away, McSally was appointed to his Senate seat by the governor. Now, she faces a second test. The de facto Democratic nominee is Mark Kelly, an astronaut and the husband of Former Rep. Gabby Giffords. Kelly leads polls comfortably, but there are many undecided voters, and Arizona hasn't ceased to be a red state.
Kelly leads polls comfortably, but there are many undecided voters, and Arizona hasn't ceased to be a red state.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Sara Gideon/Betsy Sweet (D)
Susan Collins is the most liberal Republican in the Senate, voting with Pres. Trump 66% of the time. But she can't be too conservative–she hails from Maine, a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections. After controversial votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh and to acquit Trump, though, she may have met her match in Speaker of the State House Sara Gideon, the establishment Democratic favorite, who has challenged Collins on these pro-Trump votes. Gideon, in turn, is challenged by Betsy Sweet, a liberal activist endorsed by the Justice Democrats. Whether the nominee is Gideon or Sweet (probably Gideon), whether they can beat Collins will be an important bellwether for 2020 Senate control, which in turn majorly affects what Biden or Trump could accomplish as president.
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)
Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham recently won the Democratic primary, which is lucky for Democrats. Cunningham has moved the race to a tossup from one where Sen. Thom Tillis has the edge. Polls back this up: Tillis leads in some, Cunningham in others. Like the Maine election, the winner tests the different parties' strength in 2020, and could have important effects over what happens in this country.
If you're looking to make a Democratic political donation, don't donate to Joe Biden. Your money will go farther donating to Mark Kelly or Cal Cunningham or Steve Bullock.
Wrapping Up
One important thing to note is that, while Democrats are down 3 to 4 seats overall (depending on the vice presidency), every close race except Alabama is Republican-controlled. I did some back-of-the-envelope math*** and, on average, Democrats will gain 2.3 seats during this election. And when you consider that Senate races are correlated–that is, a victory in one state makes winning another likelier–it's a seriously close race. If you're looking to make a Democratic political donation, don't donate to Joe Biden. Your money will go farther donating to Mark Kelly or Cal Cunningham or Steve Bullock.****
Anyway, I'm excited to see what happens come Election Day!
–beautifulthorns
*In 2012, then-Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill was unopposed in the primary, but the Republican contest was a three-way race between Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman. In McCaskill's view, Akin was so conservative that he would be easy to beat in the general election. She ran an ad criticizing Akin's conservatism, trying to use reverse psychology to get Republicans to support him. Akin won the primary. McCaskill won the general.
Obviously, that's a risky stunt to try–Akin could've won the general–but part of me wants Collier to run a similar ad denouncing Kobach. Just for fun.
**Interestingly, the other Montana senator is a Democrat named Jon Tester.
***Assume every safe seat has a chance of 1, every likely seat has an 0.8 chance, every leaning seat has a 0.6 chance, and every tossup is 0.5. Also, assume outcomes are uncorrelated–that is, what happens in one election doesn't impact what happens in another. (This is false.) 4 Democratic seats and 6 Republican are likely keeps, which is 4*0.2(-1)+6*0.2(+1)=0.4 seats gained. One Republican seat (Gardner) leans Democratic, but this is cancelled out by one Republican-leaning Democratic seat (Jones). Another Republican seat (Daines) leans Republican, painting another 0.4*(+1)=0.4 states blue. Finally, we account for the three tossups with a Republican incumbent, adding 3*0.5(+1)=1.5. We add this up to get 0.4+0.4+1.5=2.3 Democratic gains on the aggregate. Given that they are down 53-47, 2.3 seats flipped blue would give Republicans a narrow edge of 50.7-49.3. (Though I remind you that this is an average–fractional Senate seats don't exist.)
****Or Doug Jones. I'm a bit less concerned about beating Susan Collins, if only since she's fairly liberal already. She might even switch parties, in the sense that she won't switch parties, but it's fun to think about.