The Democratic presidential primary has been getting lots of attention this cycle, and rightly so. But often in election years, this is to the exclusion of the elections going on for Senate, House of Representatives, and Governors around the United States. So I decided to post my take on those elections as they stand right now, starting with the Senate. I might redo this closer to Election Day. Right now, Republicans lead 53-47 in the Senate, so Democrats must gain 3 seats if they win for president and 4 seats if they lose.
Think of this as a guide. You can read it through, but you can also use Command-F (if that works on your device) to find my take on elections you're curious about.
Let's start with the Senate, state by state. First, I'll get the elections where no competitiveness is anticipated out of the way.
No Election
In California, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin, there is no 2020 election.
Safely Democratic*
In Delaware (Chris Coons), Illinois (Dick Durbin), Massachusetts (Ed Markey), Oregon (Jeff Merkley), New Jersey (Cory Booker), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), and Virginia (Mark Warner) the Democrat winning is all but a foregone conclusion.
As a quick note, in New Jersey, Sen. Cory Booker would be up for reelection, but he is currently running for president. Under New Jersey law, candidates may run for both simultaneously, but Sen. Booker doing so would appear as if he's using senator as a fallback, which, while it's certainly possible is true, is still an appearance candidates probably don't want. So what's likely is, if and when Sen. Booker drops out for president, he turns around and runs for Senate. If he were to win the Democratic presidential nomination (which is unlikely at this point), other candidates would run in New Jersey, but it would still be hard for them to lose since it's so blue. Therefore, New Jersey is in this category.
Safely Republican
The seats in Alaska (Dan Sullivan), Arkansas (Tom Cotton), Idaho (Jim Risch), Louisiana (Bill Cassidy), Mississippi (Cindy Hyde-Smith), Nebraska (Ben Sasse), Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), South Dakota (Mike Rounds), West Virginia (Shelley Moore Capito), and Wyoming (Mike Enzi) are solid keeps for the Republican party.**
Leans Democratic
Sen. Gary Peters' seat in the state of Michigan will probably be maintained by the Democrats, but it's more competitive than the previous races. There are several Republicans running against him, but the frontrunner is John James, a businessman and veteran who was also the Republican senate candidate in 2018. He is a relatively strong candidate, and Michigan was a Trump state in 2016. However, James lost in 2018 by a margin of 7 points, and something in the race will have to change for him to turn things around in traditionally liberal Michigan.
In the state of Minnesota, Sen. Tina Smith was appointed last year to Al Franken's seat, and successfully defended that seat in the midterm election that year. On the Republican side, there are many different candidates with no clear leaders at the moment. Sen. Smith won in 2018 by around 10 points, and like Michigan, a path for the Republican candidate seems difficult.
In New Hampshire, the current senator is Jeanne Shaheen, and her reelection looks likely. New Hampshire has been moving from purple to blue over the last few decades. The last time it voted for a Republican for president was in 2000, and Republican then-Sen. Kelly Ayotte was dethroned in a battle for the other senate seat in 2016. The 2020 race will probably reflect this. The few polls that have been conducted as of yet only show about a 4-point lead for Sen. Shaheen***, but it's difficult to see a path to victory for whoever gets nominated on the Republican side.
Finally, New Mexico Sen. Tom Udall has announced his plan to retire, leaving an open seat. Among Democrats, Assistant Speaker of the House Ben Ray Luján is leading by large margins in polling and endorsements, so he is the likely nominee. Among Republicans, no frontrunner has emerged. In the general election, New Mexico resembles New Hampshire in that it has been moving more liberal in recent years; Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by 8 points in the state. Therefore, if there are no surprises, Luján will be the next senator from New Mexico.
Leans Republican
David Perdue's Georgia seat will probably be maintained, since it is in Georgia, which has been Republican for many years. Perdue is also not a particularly unpopular candidate. On the Democratic side, former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams has decided not to run. Jon Ossoff, from a special election a long time ago who we all forgot about, might run, and he will likely win the nomination if so. He only lost by 3 points, and Abrams lost by under a percentage points in her gubernatorial election. So, to summarize, it's not like Perdue can't lose, but he's very unlikely to.
Unlike many other states listed above, Iowa, represented by Sen. Joni Ernst, has been trending Republican. Trump won it by 10 points in 2016, for example. Democrats have not coalesced around a candidate at this point, and whoever is picked, it will certainly be an uphill battle.
I've been waiting for Kansas. The current senator is Pat Roberts, but he is retiring. The frontrunner among Republicans is former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who managed the impressive feat of losing a gubernatorial election in 2018 to the Democrat, Laura Kelly. This is Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat for president since 1964. This is primarily because of his extreme conservative views on issues such as immigration. He might lose the primary, but if he wins, wow. Anyhow, Democrats haven't picked out a candidate yet, but whoever wins will have a decent chance of victory against Kobach.
Next is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat in Kentucky. The Democratic challenger is Amy McGrath, Marine fighter pilot and 2018 candidate for representative in Kentucky's 6th. In the Marines, she was the first woman to fly the FA-18 fighter jet in combat. McGrath is a stronger than average candidate; McConnell is weaker than average. According to Morning Consult, For instance, McConnell's net approval rating is -14 points in Kentucky, making him the least popular senator in his home state. That said, per this FiveThirtyEight piece, Kentucky is 23 points more conservative than the nation as a whole. According to the same article, McGrath could triumph over McConnell, but it would require a healthy dose of luck.
In Montana, Republican Sen. Steve Daines is running for reelection. Montana is certainly quite red, and he has the advantage of incumbency, but the other senator, Jon Tester, is a Democrat, and he won in 2018 by a 4-point margin. If Gov. Steve Bullock, one of the 25 candidates that will lose the nomination, runs, he would have a pretty good shot as well.
Sen. Thom Tillis has the advantage of incumbency in North Carolina. A state that voted for Obama in 2008 but Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016, it is a Republican-leaning swing state. This election mostly reflects this. Tillis's net approval rating is -1, a bit low for a Republican senator in a red state. The Democratic nominee is unknown right now. Polls predict a close race, but it's early, and looking at partisan lean shows the Republicans have an advantage. Splitting a ballot between the two parties has become less common as of late, so if Trump carries North Carolina, it's likely Tillis will as well.
In the great state of Tennessee, Sen. Lamar Alexander is stepping down. Open seats are traditionally more competitive, thus this race is under Leans Republican instead of Safely Republican. The Democratic frontrunner is named James Mackler, and he's a lawyer, veteran, and 2018 Senate candidate as well. The Republican frontrunner, endorsed by the president, is current Ambassador Bill Hagerty. Anyhow, the Republican will be favored, but the Democrat has the ability to triumph.
Lastly in this category, we have Sen. John Cornyn of Texas. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by only 2 points in 2018. Cruz is fairly unpopular, but it's true that Democrats have made inroads in Texas. I don't think this year will be the year, but anything could happen, especially if O'Rourke runs for Senate when he drops out for president.****
Tossup
First in this category, we have Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama. Jones won in a very high-profile special election in 2018 against Former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Roy Moore. Moore is an unusually weak candidate due to allegations against him stating that he is a child molester. As our esteemed president has shown, things like that tend to diminish a candidate's reputation, but not much else. Moore is running again, as are many other candidates. If Moore wins the primary, the advantage of incumbency combined with his damaged reputation could lead to a repeat outcome, though it will still be difficult for a Democrat to win in a place so conservative. If Moore loses the primary, the Republican will have a pretty good chance to capture the seat back from Sen. Jones. Overall, the race could go either way.
In Arizona, the seat formerly held by John McCain has a special election. The current senator is Martha McSally, who lost Jeff Flake's seat in 2018, but was appointed to this seat by the governor; the special election determines whether she will stay. The probable Democratic nominee is Mark Kelly, an astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords. Polls show a race 1 point or closer, as do fundamentals.
In Colorado is the most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seat in this election. Sen. Cory Gardner's net approval rating, according to Morning Consult, is only +2 points, and he is a Republican in a state rapidly becoming more Democratic. Though Bush won it in 2000 and 2004, Obama proceeded to win it in 2008 and 2012, and Clinton triumphed by about 5 points in 2016. That said, the advantage of incumbency might prove useful for Sen. Gardner. The Democratic field is crowded, but two high-performing candidates are former State Sen. Mike Johnston and former Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff. Colorado is a major opportunity for Democrats and an important keep to prioritize for the Republicans. Definitely a tossup.
Finally, we have Susan Collins' Maine seat. A Republican in a blue state, Sen. Collins has voted in line with Trump only 69% of the time, the least of any Republican senator. However, her vote in support of Supreme Court Justice and sexual assaulter Brett Kavanaugh has led many Democrats to mobilize against her. The Democratic frontrunner is Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Sen. Collins leads polls, but the partisan lean of the state indicates Gideon.
This got long. I hope this comes in handy as a reference guide later on.
–beautifulthorns*****
Update: Guide #2 (published in March 2020)
*These ratings are from 270towin, where analysis from Sabato Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others are synthesized. I've modified them in a few cases where I disagree.
**By the way, for both Solid Democrat and Solid Republican, the diversity is unbelievable. 16/18 men and 17/18 whites. Notably, both women (Hyde-Smith and Capito) are Republicans. (For completeness, the nonwhite is Booker.) I don't know what that says, as these demographics are quite different from the Senate at-large, which is about three-quarters men and about one-tenth nonwhite, still not perfect but definitely better, which is why it's a footnote.
***These polls are against either Ayotte, who could run again, or Republican governor Chris Sununu, who has declared he will not run.
****I mean, if and when. For sure. Totally.
I also wanted to point out that O'Rourke notably has first name Robert, not Roberto, and got two DWI convictions in the 1990s.
*****The traditional ending was constraining me a bit too much.